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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."