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Plug-in hybrid cars produce nearly 5x more global warming emissions than official figures indicate, according to a new analysis.

Widening Discrepancy Between Lab and Actual CO2 Output

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release only one-fifth lower CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel vehicles, according to research carried out by a advocacy organization. This contrasts sharply with laboratory tests, which assumed a 75% reduction in emissions.

Analysts studied data from in-vehicle fuel consumption monitors of 800,000 vehicles sold in Europe between 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than official estimates, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are increasing, while official figures are decreasing,” stated a senior researcher involved in the report. “That discrepancy is growing and creates a serious problem. Consequently, PHEVs pollute nearly as heavily as petrol cars.”

Key Factors Behind the Discrepancy

Analysts attributed most of the gap to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of miles travelled in electric mode compared to total distance. They found that just 27% of driving was done in EV mode, while lab assumptions suggested over four-fifths.

Additionally, when running in EV mode, emission levels were significantly higher than lab estimates. That occurred because electric motors were not strong sufficient to function independently, resulting to combustion motors using fossil fuels for nearly a third of the travel covered in EV mode.

Policy and Economic Implications

Based on calculations, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed several major automaker companies to avoid more than €5bn in penalties from 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs could pay about €500 more per year in running expenses than would be estimated under laboratory tests.

“The strong statements that manufacturers often promote about their PHEV vehicles are clearly far from the mark,” stated a automotive analyst. “Buyers are being duped into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and cutting money. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly improved than regular gas and diesel cars in terms of energy use, CO₂ emissions, and operating expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid cars have lately been brought again into political debates as automakers have pressed the European Union to relax CO₂ targets. A planned ban on sales of new internal combustion cars in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the automotive industry and opposition from EU countries with large automotive industries.

Some senior officials have suggested PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” option to include in the legislation.

An external energy policy specialist, who was unaffiliated with the study, described the report a “highly valuable addition” after years in which parts of the automotive industry argued there was too little information to properly assess actual CO2 output.

“These findings show, beyond any doubt, that the difference between official and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is significantly greater than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” they said. “All policy adjustments concerning PHEVs should be implemented with extreme caution and considering that evidence.”