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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.