🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the current race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. During an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still